Wild Card Round Preview

After a great season of baseball, the playoff bracket is finally set in stone. October baseball is upon us. And this one is more special than most, given that it'll be the first ever postseason with 6 teams from each league. In case you were unaware, the format consists of the top two teams in each league getting a bye, with each league's 3-seed hosting the 6-seed, as well as the 4-seed hosting the 5-seed, both of which are best 2 out of three game series. 3 vs 6's winner plays the 2-seed, and 4 vs 5's winner plays the 1 seed in the division series (best 3 out of 5 as usual), and the championship series and world series will follow, alike to what we've seen in years past. With an exciting new element to watch for, here is what the bracket looks like:

So without further ado, let's preview each of the four wild card matchups starting with the...

Cleveland Guardians

In a result that few expected, the Guardians ended up coming out on top of the AL Central. While the division was certainly weak, one must not overlook Cleveland's scrappy team. Their lineup is built like an old-school one, focusing on making contact, limiting errors in the field, and stringing together key hits. They are 28th in MLB in ISO, tied with the Washington Nationals (yikes!), but what they lack in power they have in the league's lowest strikeout rate as a team. 8 of their 9 starters have strikeout rates below 20%, including both their top two hitters in Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez. They also rank 5th in both baserunning runs and outs above average. Gimenez, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan all are in the top 15 in baseball in outs above average, and Austin Hedges, the one player with a strikeout rate above 20%, has been great behind the plate.

On the other side of the ball their starting pitching is around middle of the pack, but for this series they only need to worry about their top 3 guys, being Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Aaron Civale, all of whom have FIPs under 3.80, and walk rates below 6%. And behind those guys they have one of the league's best bullpens (5th in MLB in FIP), led by stud closer Emmanuel Clase, who strikes out 28% of batters faced, and has a 64% ground ball rate. Behind Clase is Trevor Stephen, James Karinchak, Enyel De Los Santos, and Sam Hentges, all of whom have FIPs below 3. It's really a race to the 6th inning with Cleveland, especially in a short 3 game series. They are a classic "We'll beat you by not making any mistakes," type of team, and it's certainly worked so far this season.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays lineup has been pretty middle of the pack, ranking 14th in the league wRC+. Yandy Diaz is having a terrific season, and current starters Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Wander Franco, Harold Ramirez, Christian Bethancourt, and Isaac Paredes all have over 100 wRC+. Still, nothing about those hitters particularly blows me away. They're missing Kevin Kiermeier, Brandon Lowe, and Mike Zunino quite badly due to injury. I also want to highlight Jose Siri, a nice under the radar trade deadline pickup who's been an amazing defensive center fielder, paired with slightly below average hitting (which is still much better than his hitting in Houston).

Pitching is where the Rays truly excel. Tyler Glasnow is back which is huge, Shane McClanahan has had an awesome season, and Jeffery Spring and Drew Rasmussen have had great seasons too. Corey Kluber is the odd man out here and will likely move to the bullpen for October, but even he has had a good season as a starter and will be a really nice piece to have coming out late in games. The injury bug, unfortunately, hit this bullpen real hard. J.P. Feyereisen, Andrew Kittridge, Nick Anderson, Ryan Yarbrough, and Shane Baz all likely will be out. The Rays have managed with the likes of Shawn Armstrong, Brooks Raley, and Jason Adam, but it really isn't much considering what they were expecting to have, sitting at 14th in bullpen FIP.

Verdict

The Rays have limped into the playoffs, going just 14-19 in September and October, while the Guardians are 23-10 in those months, and are about 20 games above .500 since the all star break. Additionally, the Guardians match up really well against the Rays. Despite their great pitching, the Rays are 16-18 this season against the teams with the 5 lowest strikeout rates. The Rays' mediocre and injury-plagued bullpen will also have little margin for error; with Cleveland's bullpen, they're likely to give up little to no runs in the late innings. Terry Francona also happens to manage his playoff bullpen rather well. I'm giving this one to the Guardians in 2 games.

Toronto Blue Jays

From top to bottom this lineup might not have a single weakness. Maybe Santiago Espinal, but he makes up for it with his great defense. Vladimir Gurrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Danny Jansen (underrated!), and more have torn it up this year. Only the Dodgers have more team wRC+ and wOBA than the Blue Jays; Toronto is also 3rd in team OPS, and is the 5th hardest team to strike out. From top to bottom this lineup is incredible, there really isn't much else to say here.

On the pitching side of things, the Blue Jays are pretty stellar as well. Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah make for a loaded 1-2 punch, and Ross Stripling is a very underrated number 3 guy, having a 3.11 FIP and 3.7% walk rate on the season. Behind those three it gets a little suspect, whether it's Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, or Mitch White, but they won't need to worry about that in round 1. Between David Phelps, Adam Cimber, Jordan Romano, and Yimi Garcia, the bullpen is definitely solid. Nothing out of this world, and it doesn't help that Anthony Bass's FIP climbed from 2.06 with Miami to 4.63 with Toronto this season, but it's still a solid pen to backup excellent starting pitching.

Seattle Mariners

For the first time in my entire life, the Seattle Mariners will be playing playoff baseball, and handing the dreaded longest American sports playoff drought to the Sacramento Kings. This is an absolute storybook type team--watching Cal Raleigh's home run to propel Seattle to the postseason will forever give me goosebumps. Raleigh, by the way, is one of the most underrated players in baseball. The guy's got 27 bombs, a 4.2 WAR, and 121 wRC+. Outside of Raleigh, the 8th best offense in baseball by wRC+ is headlined by rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez, as well as Eugenio Suarez and Ty France. All four of the guys I've mentioned have 20+ home runs, and Suarez has 31. Carlos Santana was also a great acquisition, who at age 36 is still managing a .352 xwOBA, and Jesse Winker, labeled by many as a disappointment, is 82nd percentile in xwOBA this year, proving he's just dealt with bad batted ball luck. And for my final highlight, I want to mention Jarred Kelenic, a guy who has had a lot of struggles since his days as a top prospect, but since being called up about a couple weeks ago he has a 113 wRC+ and a 25% strikeout rate (much lower than the rest of his MLB career). And let's not forget that 94th percentile max exit velocity, highlighting his potential at the plate. Kelenic could actually be a major x-factor if the Mariners make a deep run. For as much attention as this team has been getting, a lot of their hitters are rather underrated. Their lineup is littered with tough outs from top to bottom (except Adam Frazier, but hey he defends well!).

But the true bread and butter of the Mariners lies right on the mound. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and George Kirby will likely be the three starters slated to go in the wild card round, and that's as good of a top 3 as anyone. Castillo has been a great ground-ball-getter as always, Ray, another incorrectly labeled disappointment has a 3.58 xFIP and a 3.50 SIERA, and has been to the playoffs with multiple teams. And Kirby has truly excelled, with a 2.99 FIP and 4.1% walk rate at the ripe age of 24. The Mariners have an amazing pitcher in Kirby for many, many years to come. The bullpen is great too, with Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Erik Swanson, and more. Even Chris Flexen, a starter who's struggled this year but is only 1 year removed from a 3 WAR season could be a weapon in the late innings.

Verdict

These teams are about as even as it gets, and this was definitely the toughest pick I've had to make. This will no doubt be a fantastic series, and both teams have been playing their best baseball in the second half. The Blue Jays have been red hot since firing Charlie Montoyo, and the Mariners look like a complete different team since their brawl with the Angels. It's really a coin flip, and it's easy to justify picking either team here. That said, I'm going to go Mariners in 3. Seattle gets a home playoff game in round 2.

New York Mets

So apparently the NL East isn't over. Sorry, Mets fans, I had to. In actuality, the Braves won the NL East more than the Mets lost it. It's hard to blame New York for this. And they should really be keeping their heads high after a terrific regular season. Boy did Francisco Lindor figure himself out, Pete Alonso has been Pete Alonso and his 40 homers, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo are both great players, Canha and Marte have been great acquisitions, and we can't possibly forget the greatest player of all time, Daniel Vogelbach. Jokes aside, he does have an 18% walk rate and 144 wRC+ since joining the Mets. This is just a really great lineup.

And then on top of that lineup they have Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer as their game 1 and 2 starters? Absolutely unreal. Should they need a game 3 guy it'll become a pick your poison between Chris Bassit, Taijuan Walker, and Carlos Carrasco, all of which are good options. And don't forget the two they don't choose will go and help that already great bullpen. Edwin Diaz has a 0.90 FIP and 3.0 WAR as a closer. That's otherworldly. There really aren't any holes on the Mets that I can see and they are a team built very well for October baseball.

San Diego Padres

There's definitely a lot to like about the Padres. That'll happen when your headline players are Manny Machado and Juan Soto. Jake Cronenworth has had a nice season too, and Ha-Seong Kim has filled in for Fernando Tatis nicely. I just can't think of this team as anything other than underachievers. Soto has a .390 slugging percentage since joining the team. Brandon Drury has regressed to around league average. Josh Bell has simply been terrible, with a 79 wRC+ as a Padre. Machado has really been their only consistent hitter this season, though the lineup does have a lot of great fielders, ranking the Padres second in baseball in OAA. Even so, seeing their batting order doesn't inspire confidence for me.

The Padres are here though, which is a lot for their franchise. Something had to have propelled them here. And that something was likely Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove, all pitchers having really great seasons. Behind the starters they have guys like Luis Garcia who's having a really awesome season, and Josh Hader seems to be figuring things out in San Diego of late. Even here though, why do Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger suddenly have FIPs over 4?

Verdict

The Padres just seem overmatched at the plate, and I don't think they'll score enough runs off of either DeGrom or Scherzer to even force a game 3, let alone win the series. Getting here is a good accomplishment for San Diego, but again, they should be doing more. I'll give the series to the team better on paper, on record, and on playing to their potential. Mets in 2.

St. Louis Cardinals

If the Mariners didn't exist this would be the story of the season by FAR. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina having their last run is already something for the history books, but it's unreal the type of season Pujols has been putting together as a 42 year old. He's in the 94th percentile in xSLG and xwOBA in a season that was more focused on his farewell tour than actual production. The Cardinals overall have the league's 5th best offense by wRC+, and aside from Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt being amazing, guys like Lars Nootbar, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, and more have had nice years.

The Cardinals rotation actually isn't terrific, and a need many thought they would address at the trade deadline in a big way. Fans complained when they seemingly put a band-aid on a broken arm with buy-low starters Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery, but both have been really great in St. Louis. At least one, if not both of them, would be a top 3 starter for the playoffs. That leaves one other potential starter to use for a 3 game series, and how could it not be Adam Wainwright. The definition of consistency. This generation's Jamie Moyer. The 40 year old who's been on every big stage conceivable and has a 3.66 FIP this season. He's not a flashy guy to have starting a game, but flashy has never been synonymous with Wainwright. He'll get the job done just as he always has.

Philadelphia Phillies

The great Phillies experiment of ignoring fielding skill entirely and finding the 9 best hitters by any means has ended in a playoff birth. Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Bohm are all good hitters with negative defensive runs according to fangraphs WAR. Nick Castellanos would also make the list but his 94 wRC+ has been really disappointing this year. Their playoff birth was one that was limped into however. The Phillies went 14-16 in September and October, and lost to many bad teams along the way. They also are 20th in baseball in 1 run games, something somewhat accurately and somewhat inaccurately attributed to luck, but nonetheless an important thing for a team in October baseball.

The 1-2 starters for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, two absolutely incredible arms to have for games 1 and 2. There's definitely a drop off behind them, but I'd expect Noah Syndergaard to go in game 3 should it be necessary for the series. And then the bullpen has actually been functioning, headlined by Jose Alvarado. Granted, the unit as a whole is 12th in MLB in FIP, but that's astronomically better than Philadelphia bullpens of years past.

Verdict

This matchup is actually really close on paper in my opinion, but in terms of actual players, I like the Cardinals a lot better. They are a better hitting and much much better fielding team, and while the pitching isn't great it's solid enough to keep the ship afloat. The Phillies aren't playing good baseball right now, and while one of either Nola or Wheeler could win them a game, I don't see them taking 2 of 3 in St. Louis. Give me the Cardinals in 3.

And with that, my predictions for the Wild Card Round are done. Hopefully this doesn't completely blow up in my face. I wanted to go round-by-round to avoid the possibility of my predictions falling flat in round 2 or 3, but just for fun I'll throw the Cardinals out there as my World Series winner. I said it back in June inexplicably and I'm sticking with it inexplicably. Pujols, Molina, and Wainwright ride off into the sunset with yet another championship. There are so many teams that could make a run this year, and I'm sure we'll be getting a terrific October to remember. I cannot wait for playoff baseball.