Projecting the Rest of the Giants' Offseason

This Giants' offseason, to me, was always going to be an interesting one. Aside from the accidental perfection of 2021, this team has been meddling around, directionless, since their 2016 playoff elimination (obligatory Matt Moore recognition). The roster is littered with overpaid veterans, raw youth, and a stench of mediocrity. Something has to give here. And to an extent, it already has. The Giants just a few days ago were reported to have signed KBO superstar Jung Hoo Lee to a massive 6-year, $113 million. This is a terrific start--a team lacking speed, contact, fielding, and… character, checks all those boxes by signing the man they call the "Grandson of Wind." But at the same time, Giants fans figure more must be coming. This must only be the appetizer from Chef Farhan Zaidi. What else is to come? No one has any clue. But I'll play GM for now and talk about what should be the next steps for San Francisco.

Free Agent Signings

As mentioned, Jung Hoo Lee (above) was a nice start to the offseason for the Giants. In terms of what else I'd like them to do, don't expect much. When projecting their roster and playing GM, you must look not only at team needs and preferences but also at the realities of the market. I would love to have Yoshinobu Yamamoto listed here in big huge letters, but realistically he's probably going to the Yankees or Dodgers. For now, I have the Giants signing a pitcher just as good as Yamamoto if not better, and a buy low big bat.

Let's start with the arm: Blake Snell. Ever heard of him? The one player who finished above Logan Webb in NL Cy Young Award voting, in case you forgot. Snell pairs well with Webb atop the rotation, providing a strikeout-and-stuff-heavy guy in Snell to counteract the strike-throwing, innings-eating Logan Webb. Snell might not be able to go the distance like Webb can, but a career 29.7% strikeout rate will more than suffice. He also has ties to Bob Melvin and may want to remain on the West Coast. And not that it counts for much, but Snell has a 2.59 career ERA against the Dodgers. His contract figure will likely be around $200 million, but to be honest, I'm happier spending that much on Snell than north of $300 million on a longer term deal with Yamamoto. I believe in Yamamoto and I think he's a stud, but when you're talking about a 31-year-old Cy Young Award winner for $100 million and 3-4 years less than a 25-year-old who, while being ridiculously good in Japan, has yet to step foot on an MLB mound. Snell seems like the less risky option here. The better investment.

Speaking of good investments, let's talk about Rhys Hoskins. Rhys is 30 years old and missed all of last season with an ACL injury. However, he has a career 126 wRC+ and had a 30 home run season in 2022. The Giants ultimately will be starting a lot of youth this year, and they need someone they can slate in the lineup everyday and rely on for production, even if it's at DH. Hoskins can be that guy. Additionally, the value for a hitter like Hoskins is something I think should be pounced on by front offices. A slugging veteran coming off an injury on a one-year prove-it deal makes a lot of sense for both parties. The Giants can get some good, cheap, offensive production, and Hoskins gets a one-year deal to show teams he's ready before going back on the market next offseason.

Trade Acquisitions

I see free agency as an opportunity to look for bargains. Bad contracts can put a team in a deep hole rather quickly; for every situation like the Rangers, there's always another like the Mets. That's why I'm all over safer investments in Snell and Hoskins. Trading, on the other hand, I'm much more comfortable taking risks with. When trading, you pay for players with your prospects and players--theoretically ones that you know best. Teams should be a lot more comfortable dealing in their currency. Which is why I have the Giants acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Rays. The selling Rays and desperate-for-a-star Giants make a good pairing in a potential trade. So good that I even made a mock trade for it.

Randy is a terrific player, an exciting player, and a face-of-a-franchise type player that the Giants could severely benefit from. He would immediately become a fan favorite and likely the best hitter on the roster. It's the kind of player the younger guys adore and want to become. Arozarena would provide the team with a tremendous spark and a fearless leader. Then there's Drew Rasmussen, a buy-low candidate for the Giants. When healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in baseball, but due to an elbow injury he won't pitch until around the middle of next season. The Giants need rotation depth, and the Rays happen to have that at the ready. As for the Rays' return, I have Luis Matos and Aeverson Artega (Giants 12th prospect). Certainly, a tall price must be paid for Arozarena, and that is exactly what I have the Giants doing. First, I'm not crazy about Aeverson Artega. He's going to be 21 before the end of spring training and hasn't exactly shown much minor-league production yet. Thus, that was the first name I threw into the trade.

Second, I had a decision to make. I figured trading a big name like Arozarena would require a big-name prospect in return. I was between a Luciano/McCray package and Luis Matos but ultimately went with the latter. Luciano has a lot of pop to begin with, cited by his 15 homers in 74 AA and AAA games this past minor league season, and will be the same age as Matos to start next season. His 30/40 fielding rating on Fangraphs isn't exactly exciting to hear, but given his athleticism, I doubt the Giants have trouble making him an average shortstop at the very least. Estrada and Davis's ranges (19 OAA, and 6 OAA, respectively) will certainly help ease him into that. The worst case for Luciano is he has to switch positions, and with his raw power, I think he has the potential to do that. He can be a good enough hitter that he doesn't have to play shortstop to be valuable. much less confident in the same for Luis Matos, however. Matos needs to now switch out of centerfield to make room for Lee, and his bat certainly isn't ready for that. Worst case, sure, the Rays unlock his potential completely. But a young and high-ceiling player like Matos is required when trading for players like Arozarena. Plus, the outfield is rather clogged up, unlike the infield, the Giants could certainly afford to trade a player or two. Perhaps... Michael Conforto. He's a decent left-handed bat off the bench, I guess. But to pay $18 million a year for an "I guess" type of player to take up a roster spot is absurd. Without going through the details let's assume the Giants find a way to dump his contract, or at the very least vacate his roster spot.

Final Roster

Pitchers

We'll start with the rotation. Webb and Snell will be the 1-2 punch, with Alex Cobb 3rd, Kyle Harrison 4th, and Ross Stripling looking for a bounce-back year in the 5th slot. Additionally, Drew Rasmussen, who will open the year on IL, will likely force his way into the rotation when healthy. One of the biggest concerns the Giants had last year was the pressure put on the bullpen, and this rotation will look to ease that pressure. 

In that same bullpen, we'll have Taylor and Tyler Rogers, Sean Hjelle, Luke Jackson, Ryan Walker, Keaton Winn, and of course, All-Star closer Camilo Doval. It pains me to leave a guy like Tristan Beck off the roster, but given his lack of track record in the minors I'd like to see more from him in AAA before giving him MLB starts. He'd likely be the first minor league arm called up should any injuries arise. It was either Beck, Winn, or Hjelle I'd have to leave off. Winn has a terrific splitter that plays off a solid fastball, and those two pitches alone could keep him locked at the big league level. Hjelle is ridiculously tall, meaning the angle at which he throws is extremely deceptive to hitters. In fact, according to Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard, Hjelle's sinker, which he throws 53% of the time, approaches the strike zone an entire degree steeper than the average righty sinker. Simply put, Winn and Hjelle have better swing-and-miss stuff than Beck right now. Also, Hjelle only has one option remaining, to Winn and Beck's two each.

Catchers

Patrick Bailey is the starter. That couldn't be more obvious after the season he had last year. Since 2015, only 6 catchers have had a more valuable season behind the plate by Statcast fielding run value than Bailey in 2023. And that's despite Bailey only playing 97 games last season. If Bailey never improves his hitting ability in the slightest, he's still a high-quality big leaguer. But we know that won't happen. He's going to hit MLB pitchers because his wOBA was about 30 points below his xwOBA last year. Because throughout the minors his walk rate never dipped into the single digits. Because his barrel rate is already in the 63rd percentile of baseball.

As for who will back up the switch-hitting Bailey, I've gone with Joey Bart. The only reason you'd keep Blake Sabol on the roster is for positional flexibility--he's a league-average hitter and a bad defender behind the dish. But as I've mentioned, the Giants have a cluttered outfielder. They don't need to sacrifice the backup catcher position to have a guy like Sabol who can also play left. Bart has been given more than enough chances to start and was leapfrogged on the organizational depth chart by a guy drafted 2 years after he was, but he will more than suffice as a backup option. Worst case he's traded to a team who still believes in him, and the Giants replace him with another version of Curt Casali or Roberto Perez.

Infielders

The infield shouldn't change too much between this and last year. The starters, going from left to right on the diamond, will be JD Davis, Marco Luciano, Thairo Estrada, and Lamonte Wade Jr. Wilmer Flores will technically come off the bench in this scenario, given Rhys Hoskins takes over DH duties. However, given how good of a hitter Flores is, I'd imagine he still gets his fair share of reps. The other backup infielder will be Tyler Fitzgerald, who impressed me in limited action last season. I see Casey Schmitt as the higher ceiling of the two, but when constructing a roster for the present, I'd rather have Fitzgerald coming off the bench and Schmitt continuing to work on his plate discipline in Sacramento.

Outfielders

The Giants starting outfield would consist of Arozarena in left, Lee in center and Mike Yastrzemski in right. An exhilarating prospect of an outfield to say the least. Given the Conforto salary dump and the Matos trade, that leaves Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater as our two backups. Plus, Wade Meckler and Heliot Ramos will be sitting in AAA, itching to get back to the bigs. For the record, I would love to see Meckler back in the bigs, and I think he's more than capable of doing so. However, there's not much we can do about the Haniger contract, especially since Conforto was already taken care of. And unlike Conforto, I'd give Haniger a decent shot at returning to pre-Giants form.

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At the end of the day, the Giants need to do something. Anything to get fans excited about coming to the ballpark. Anything to prevent Michael Conforto from being an everyday starter. Anything to get back to the October promised land. Again, Lee was a nice addition. He can't be the only one. The future is bright in San Francisco. The Giants have a lot of good young pieces to work with right now. But if they don't build properly this offseason, we could be looking at another long stretch of mediocrity for this franchise. The ball is in your court, Farhan.