What's wrong with the Yankees?

As of writing this post, the New York Yankees are last in the AL East, and have a record of 6-10. While they've played just 16 games in a 162 game season, there seems to be some cause for concern. This is a new sort of problem for the Yankees. In the past few seasons, the main problem in the Bronx was October baseball, and not in actually getting there. Their team has been extremely talented, yet always lack something that prevents a deep postseason run. They haven't made the World Series since their championship in 2009. Could the new-found regular season adversity push them to that goal? Or is the adversity caused by something deeper at play? I've looked through the numbers, and I think I've got a pretty good answer to that.

In terms of the Yankees as a team, their offense has not been nearly where it has been the past few seasons. As a team they have a wOBA of .287, which is the second worst mark in the league. They have also hit only 17 home runs, which is 23rd in MLB, as well as an isolated power rating of .137, which ranks 25th in the league. The Bronx Bombers certainly haven't been living up to their name. While the more advanced metrics are slightly better, placing the Yankees 20th in hard hit balls and 21st in barrels, that still isn't nearly enough to warrant natural improvement.

Looking at individual hitters, Aaron Judge has still been Aaron Judge, with a wOBA of .361, xwOBA of .441, and 137 wRC+. And Gary Sanchez, although holding a disappointing .214 batting average, has an expected batting average of .271, and a wOBA of .318 compared to an xwOBA of .360. DJ LeMahieu has played well too, with a .356 wOBA and 133 wRC+, and Gio Urshela is near or above the 70th percentile in average exit velocity, expected batting average, and hard hit balls. Yet there's also Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier, both of whom have strikeout rates at 34%, and those two, along with Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, and Brett Gardner, all have wOBAs under .300. Normally, these pieces end up panning out for the Yankees, and were actually the reason they were competitive last year. With a lot of key players injured in 2020, guys like these had to step up, which they did. But it doesn't seem to be translating into this season. Getting Luke Voit off the injured list eventually will help, but it won't turn the team around. The Yankees have prided on their depth for a while it seems, but this season's results is uncharacteristic in that respect.

While stats also suggest a poor fielding year so far for the Yankees, this isn't nearly as much of a concern. The Yankees as a whole aren't known for their fielding like they are for their hitting. They currently have -4 defensive runs saved as a team, and an UZR of -3.2, compared to last years numbers of -2 defensive runs saved and a -4.8 UZR. While the poor defensive marks are worth mentioning, they are far from the cause of the Yankees 6-10 record. In fact, the ability to keep the defensive ratings near where they were last season is impressive, as some players are poor defenders due to lack of confidence from poor hitting. While this correlation is small and could mean nothing, it also could show the Yankees as being mentally tough, an important attribute to have not only fighting back from a 6-10 start but doing so under the bright lights of New York City.

Moving on to pitching, the bullpen has actually been really good this season. Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Darren O'Day, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Luis Cessa all have ERAs under 2, FIPs under 3.5, and SIERAs under 3.8. Chapman, in fact, has a negative value in FIP: an otherworldly mark of -0.93. And not a single Yankees pitcher has a blown save this season. Additionally, the SIERA marks for Chapman, Loaisiga, and O'Day are all under 3, and the xFIP marks for Chapman, Cessa, and Loaisiga are all under 3. You get the point. Their bullpen is incredible. 5 reliable guys, plus an unlucky 6th in Lucas Luetge with a 4.92 FIP paired with a 3.93 xFIP. Starting pitching, however, has been much more of a struggle. Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole, we all know that. 1.82 ERA, 0.92 FIP, and a 41% strikeout rate. That's their ace. Behind him, there isn't too much to be optimistic about. Corey Kluber and Domingo German have been disasters so far, both holding FIPs above 7 and SIERAs above 4.5. Jordan Montgomery, while not a disaster, has also not been good, with a 4.24 ERA and 5.07 FIP. Jameson Taillon also hasn't been great, but with an xERA of 3.37 compared to a 5.40 ERA, along with being in the 88th percentile in walk rate for pitchers, his high floor could soon emerge. Luis Severino could return, but that's a complete guessing game between when that return date will be and if he'll even be at full form after not pitching in a game for a year and a half.

The problem here is that there isn't one specific problem that the Yankees are dealing with. If they start pitching well, maybe their fielding or hitting won't back it up. If they start hitting well, they might not have the starting pitching to win games at a sustainable rate. At the end of the day, Aaron Boone is faced with a difficult question. Should he rely on sheer talent and expect the Yankees to start playing better ball, or should he make adjustments right now and adapt to their struggles? The answer is a mix of both.

While the advanced metrics don't suggest the hitting will heat up, I wouldn't be too worried. It's a two week span where they haven't been hitting great. I'm sure that happens all the time with even the best of teams, but it's only magnified right now because it happens to be the first two weeks of the season. However, just because of how loaded a lineup the Yankees have, you can't simply expect that and hope for the best. If I were Aaron Boone, I'd start to rely on my bullpen more. By this, I mean go full games where the bullpen pitches, or let the starter pitch 2-4 innings and have the bullpen take over, or use the famous opener strategy created down in Tampa Bay. Boone should look to utilize what the Yankees are good at, and not what they should be good at. Additionally, relying on the bullpen would in theory cause the opposing team to score less runs, which could take less pressure off the offense to be climbing back into games all the time. Imagine having the bullpen pitch an entire game, and allowing only 3 or 4 runs, compared to a shaky starter coming in and allowing twice that in just 3 innings. The offense will be more relaxed, and if there's anything of utmost importance when hitting, it's being relaxed and in the zone. Additionally, using the bullpen a lot more would be an even more successful strategy come playoff time. It is difficult to deploy a bullpen strategy for the majority of a 162 game season, but when managing on the fly in a 1 month playoff run, it's a lot easier.

However, alluding to my initial answer to the question, it must be a mix of both. Whatever Boone does won't single-handedly turn the Yankees' season around, and similarly, an offensive revival won't single-handedly turn it around. Based on what the Yankees are dealing with, a lot more than one big thing must happen for them to truly be title contenders. If it were one large thing, then yes, fixing it would go a long way. But the bottom line is it's not, which makes it much harder, although not impossible, for the Yankees to right the ship. I would expect a turn around, but it won't be enough to make a deep playoff run, or even win the AL East. Yes, I'm aware that it's a long season, but the Yankees are also in a tough division. That's not to say they'll miss the playoffs entirely, but right now there's a lot that needs fixing before the Yankees can return to their preseason expectations.