What Happened to Aaron Sanchez

A California native: born in California, currently playing in California. But there's a lot in between. Aaron Sanchez was at one point a top prospect in MLB. A 1st round pick in 2010, he got as high as the 34th ranked prospect in baseball, and the number 1 ranked prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. He was called up in 2014. Showing flashes, he ultimately put everything together in an all star 2016 season, but never returned to that 2016 form. He was traded to the Houston Astros in 2019, and showed some promise there, pitching in a combined no-hitter even, but just 3 weeks after the trade he tore a capsule in his throwing shoulder, and missed the rest of that season, along with the 2020 season. He was picked up by the San Francisco Giants on a nice buy low deal: 1 year, $4 million. A prove-it signing for a player who once had a high ceiling, and arguably still possesses great upside. It makes sense on the surface. But does Sanchez have the capability of reaching the heights he could've reached? And how good really was that 2016 season?

First off, whatever happens to Sanchez, this was a great signing for the Giants. Only $4 million, for 1 season, as a five-starter for a team that is solid but still a year or so away. Initially, I loved the signing. If he could somehow bring back his 2016 ways, where he lead the American League in ERA, it would pay incredible dividends for San Francisco. But I went deeper into that 2016 season, and something caught my eye. While he had an ERA of 3.00, his expected ERA (xERA) was 4.22. This displays a significantly lucky pitcher. Additionally, both his FIP and SIERA were higher than his ERA, at 3.55 and 4.01 respectively. While a 3.55 FIP is still great, a 4.01 SIERA as well as a 4.22 xERA are below average with respect to the rest of the league. Sanchez's strikeout rate that year hovered around 20%, with his walk rate around 8%, both around the league average. This is why analytics are so important. On the surface, you see a breakout player. A league leader in ERA, an all star, and a Cy Young Award candidate. But looking below the surface reveals a player who should've gave up more runs than he did, and who didn't pitch as well as many thought. Maybe he had stellar fielders behind him that year. Or maybe there were a lot of line drives that happened to find his fielders' gloves. In any case, he wasn't as good as the tip of the iceberg suggests. But what does this all mean?

Well, as great as analytics are, Sanchez did go 15-2 that season. While wins and losses are not a reliable stat at all, he did manage to win games significantly more than he lost games, which is notable. Sure, he had a WAR of 3.5, that of an average to above average player, but his team found ways to win games when he was on the mound. That gives a pitcher confidence, which in my mind, goes above any calculations a statistician can make. So when asked the question, "Can Aaron Sanchez return to form?" the answer is complicated. On one hand, his advanced stats suggest there is no "form" to return to, and he just was never that good. And that could very well be true, as there have been countless top prospects who have failed to produce in MLB. On the other hand, his confidence was at an all time high in 2016, so if he can get back to where he was mentally, he could perform close to where he was 5 years ago.

I also took the time to watch some of his 2016 highlights to get a more stylistic approach. He simply looks like a confident player, which matters a lot for pitchers. He looked like a pitcher with poise, a pitcher who knew what pitch to throw, and a pitcher who was ready to execute each of his pitches. He threw his fastball 74% of the time that year, something that takes an immense amount of confidence to do. To think that you can throw a ball right by someone with pure power and strength, without relying on curves or breaks to fool the hitter, means you have to throw the ball with conviction--which he did. He also mixed in a couple off-speed pitches, throwing his curve ball 16% of the time, and his change-up 9% of the time. He had great command of both of these pitchers, and while relying on a great fastball, he knew when to keep hitters off balance.

I've watched him in his first two starts this year and it seems that fastball reliance has left him. His fastball usage has dropped to just 55%, with his curve ball and change-up usage increasing to 33% and 12% usage, respectively. No matter what the underlying stats say, going 15-2 only to change your pitching style is not ideal. His fastball usage has been declining ever since 2016. This season, he pitched 5 innings against the San Diego Padres, allowing 1 run, and pitched 5 more against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing 2 runs. Both times, his off speed pitches, his curve ball in particular, worked really well and was breaking a lot. His fastball looked sloppy at times, missing its spots, and allowing most if not all of his hard contact from his fastball. He let up a 2 run home run to Reds' outfielder Jesse Winker, where he missed middle with his fastball, and that same inning, his fastball let up a couple more line drives. While the fastball woes could be due to him coming off shoulder surgery, it doesn't matter the cause. The verdict here is that he's showing signs of life, but needs to iron out the kinks in the pitch that's always worked for him.

In the end, only time will tell the fate of Aaron Sanchez. While his analytics suggest he's never been great at the highest level, his status as a prospect and his once heightened confidence prove there's still hope for the right-hander. Playing-wise, there's nothing that shows me he can reach what people thought he could when he was a prospect. However, if he gets his confidence back, I'd expect him to be a solid back-end starter for a team. His upside would be a player who's nothing special during the regular season, but can use his confidence to turn up his game under the bright playoff lights. His downside? Out of the league in a couple of seasons. It will be more than interesting to follow where Sanchez goes over the next season or so, with such a wide range of outcomes. We can only hope his name doesn't get thrown into the pile of prospects who never showed out.