One Player I Like and Dislike From Each Division

It feels surreal that after we were gifted with an amazing World Baseball Classic, we are less than a week away from more baseball. Luckily, however, we find ourselves so close to MLB being back in action. Firstly, a huge congratulations goes out to Japan for taking home the WBC trophy. We often forget that a lot of the top Japanese baseball stars remain in their domestic league, which is arguably just as good as the US's own. Shohei Ohtani even claimed he wasn't the best player on the Japanese national team, and there might be a morsel of truth to that, crazy enough. But now that the WBC is over, we can put all our energy into previewing the upcoming MLB season. In doing so, I'm going to look into each of the six divisions, highlighting a couple players per division--one player I like to have a strong 2023 campaign, and one player I dislike, and think will have a not-so-good 2023. A quick disclaimer here, I'm going to try to be unique with my picks. Obviously, I think Mike Trout will have a great season and Isiah Kiner-Falefa won't be as great, but there's no fun in making predictions like that. I like to think of this segment as a way to find under the radar players to break out, and well-known players who I think will regress. With all that out of the way, let's begin with the American League East.

AL East

Zach Eflin: Like

After spending 7 seasons with the Phillies, Zach Eflin finds himself putting on a new jersey for the first time since being called up. Eflin was one of the first big free agents to be signed this offseason when the Tampa Bay Rays inked him to a 3 year, $40 million contract. Most of Eflin's career has been spent as a starting pitcher, but last season the Phillies utilized him as a reliever, and a pretty dominant one too. He made 7 appearances out of the 'pen in the regular season, and then 10 more in the postseason, playing an integral role in the Phillies' run to the World Series. In the playoffs, Eflin had a 2.64 FIP in his 10 appearances, paired with a 1.16 FIP in his 7 regular season relief appearances. Quite the development when looking at his 3.83 FIP as a starter last season. Despite all this, it looks as if the Rays will be deploying him in their starting rotation for this season.

So why am I so high on a guy who has been consistently average throughout his career? A big reason is the fact that he ended up in Tampa Bay to begin with. The Rays aren't exactly known for throwing money around; shockingly, Eflin's $40 million contract was the richest free agent signing in franchise history. The Rays obviously see something they like in Eflin. And to be honest, I see where they're coming from. While his career stat line is littered with mediocrity (4.49 ERA, 4.36 FIP), he is a pretty high floor pitcher. His career walk rate sits at 5.7%, and he never had a season with a walk rate above 6.8%. What limits Eflin is his stuff, boasting another sign of mediocrity in a 19.7% career strikeout rate. Simply put, for the Rays to unlock Eflin's potential, they must maintain and utilize his stellar control, while improving his strikeout ability. And throughout spring training, this already seems to be the case. levy_cameron pointed out the following on Twitter:

Already Eflin's breaking ball and, in turn, strikeout ability both seem to be taking major leaps. I expect Eflin to maintain his high floor this season, and ramp up his strikeouts completely. While the Rays may have dished out more money than ever to sign him, this contract will look like a steal by the end of 2023.

Carlos Rodon: Dislike

Carlos Rodon's injury history includes a 2017 shoulder surgery, 2018 shoulder issues flaring up, 2019 Tommy John, and more shoulder fatigue in 2021. In Rodon's 8 year career, he surpassed 165 innings pitched just twice. Additionally, even while being completely healthy last season in San Francisco, he pitched on 4 days rest only 10 times among his 31 total starts. Must I also bring up his 4.26 FIP in his first 6 seasons? Yes, in 2021 and 2022 Rodon has exploded, having a 2.42 FIP and 11.1 WAR for both seasons combined, as well as a 34% strikeout rate. He's been amazing these past couple seasons. But the Yankees gave him a $27 million AAV this offseason; they gave ace money to a guy who's been an ace for 2 of his 8 season, injury-riddled career. He has already injured his forearm as we speak! And even when he's healthy, he's not exactly an innings-eater, averaging around 5.2 innings per start last year (ranks 31st among 45 qualified starters).

At the end of the day, will the Yankees get a quality number 2 or 3 starter in Rodon? Likely, yes. But there's far too many question marks to give him the contract he was given. His role and importance will be less than what Yankees fans are expecting for 2023.

AL Central

Vinnie Pasquantino: Like

Overshadowed by the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Michael Harris, and Adley Rutschman, Vinnie Pasquantino actually had a stellar 2022 rookie campaign. He had an 11.7% walk rate and an 11.2% strikeout rate, a .365 wOBA, and a 137 wRC+ across 72 games in Kansas City. Pasquantino was actually one of 8 total players to walk at a higher rate than strike out in over 250 PAs. The rest of this impressive list had Juan Soto, Yandy Diaz, Luis Arraez, Alex Bregman, Alejandro Kirk, Michael Brantley, and Steven Kwan. He accomplished all this with a .155 ISO, which doesn't compare to his .284 ISO in 73 AAA games last year.

Furthermore, Pasquantino had a 15.3% whiff rate, just over 9 percentage points below the league average. It's rare for a 25 year old like Pasquantino to have such a complete hitting profile. The guy is already one of the best of the best at being disciplined, and has a lot of potential to hit for power as shown by his minor league numbers. I imagine him having a full season in the Royals starting lineup will do wonders, and help him unlock a lot of that power. And even if he doesn't unlock most of it in 2023, remember that his floor is what he did last season: including a 47% hard hit rate, .476 xSLG, and 10 home runs over less than half a season. He's already a 20 homer guy in a full season, and there's still nowhere to go but up for Pasquantino.

Spencer Torkelson: Dislike

As we go from one sophomore first baseman to the next, we find ourselves staring right at Spencer Torkelson, the guy the Tigers want to build their future around. And I don't blame them for that. He's a really great and talented hitter, and was picked 1st overall out of Arizona State for good reason. The problem with Torkelson is that it still seems too early for him to rise even close to those expectations. A big reason I took Pasquantino's minor league production so seriously is because he played 246 games down there before coming to Kansas City, even despite missing action in the cancelled Minor League season of 2020. Another good example is Adley Rutschman, who played 180 minor league games plus however many he missed in 2020. Both Rutschman and Pasquantino were drafted in 2019, and the Orioles and Royals took their time with them, respectively. That's partly why both of them transitioned to the big leagues as smoothly as they did.

Torkelson, on the other hand, was drafted in 2020, and didn't play in the minor leagues until 2021. He then totaled 156 minor league games before being thrust into action early last season. In 110 big league games last year he had a 9.2% walk rate and a 24.5% strikeout rate, along with a 76 wRC+. Now here were his numbers in the minor leagues before that:

Looks good, but it clearly drops off each time he gets promoted. Additionally, his plate discipline keeps getting worse, culminating in those aforementioned walk and strike out numbers from last season. That goes along with his 25.6% whiff rate in 2022. While I still believe in Torkelson in the long run, I'm a bigger believer that a drop off in plate discipline signifies a hitter who's overmatched. For now, I still don't think he's ready.

AL West

AJ Pollock: Like

For a young and upstart team like Seattle, bringing in a veteran presence with playoff experience like AJ Pollock was a great move this past offseason. But rather than just highlighting the value of Pollock's clubhouse presence, I'd like to suggest he actually plays a key offensive role for the Mariners. Sure, Pollock is a 35 year old coming off of a 92 wRC+ season, but from 2017-2022, he didn't have a single season below 103 wRC+, including a 137 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR season with the Dodgers in 2021. Additionally, while 2022 might have been a down year on the surface, Pollock's value isn't as an everyday player.

Last year with the White Sox, Pollock slashed .231/.284/.309 with a 69 wRC+ against right handed pitchers. This is a stark contrast from his slash line against lefties: .286/.316/.619 for a 161 wRC+. And this isn't much of an outlier, since his career wRC+ against righties is 107, whereas against lefties it sits at 129. Furthermore, with the Mariners, he'll really only be playing against left handers. With two of the starting outfield spots all but locked up by Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez, the third spot will be left for Pollock to platoon with lefty Jarred Kelenic, a player with opposite career splits to Pollock. Essentially, Pollock fits into the Mariners lineup like a glove, both based on his career splits and his veteran presence on a young team. Similar to how the Carlos Santana trade acted as a spark-plug to the Mariners last season, Pollock could act as the veteran spark-plug this season.

Tyler Anderson: Dislike

After a pretty uneventful career since his 2016 debut, Tyler Anderson broke out last season with the Dodgers for a 4 WAR, 3.31 FIP year across 28 starts and 178.2 innings pitched. Anderson remains in the greater LA metropolis for 2023, this time in Anaheim. While the geography remains constant for the 33 year old lefty, the team and pitching development skills couldn't be more different. Since 2012, the Angels have had 6 starting pitchers with a FIP below 4 (minimum 100 IP). The Dodgers, on the other hand, have had 14.

In terms of Anderson himself, most of his production career-wise comes from limiting hard contact; in the statcast era, his hard hit rate percentile has fallen below 80th just once, and last year it made it all the way to the 98th percentile. Meanwhile, his whiff rate and strikeout rate have never surpassed the 54th and 56th percentiles, respectively. Pitchers like Anderson who rely pretty much solely on quality of contact can have sporadic production on a year to year basis, and changing teams only increases Anderson's variability. Even if he stayed on the Dodgers, however, the signs of regression are still there. Anderson's career BABIP sits at .287, slightly below league average, but in 2022 it dipped all the way to .256. That isn't something we can expect to happen every season. Additionally, while Anderson had a 2.57 ERA, he had a 3.31 FIP, a 4.10 xFIP, and a 4.04 SIERA. Pretty much everything about Tyler Anderson points to regression, and while a solid season is still in play, I highly doubt he will reach last season's level of production.

NL East

Kyle Wright: Like

Braves fans have a lot to look forward to this season, especially concerning their rotation. Max Fried is a bonafide ace, Spencer Strider is 24 and already a Cy Young contender, Mike Soroka is returning for the first time since the shortened 2020 season, and Charlie Morton will likely continue to defy father time. But there's one more starter in Atlanta who I believe is getting far less attention than he deserves--Kyle Wright. Up until 2022 Wright bounced in and out of the majors, but last year he finally solidified a spot in the Braves rotation, and with his rotation spot and 30 games started he didn't disappoint. Wright had a 3.58 FIP, a 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, and most impressive, a 55.6% ground ball rate, all culminating in a 2.9 WAR season.

Helping Wright achieve his high ground ball rate is his sinker--his best pitch. It had a -12 run value last season, tied for 4th in MLB among qualified starters, and is 20th in MLB in vertical drop when compared to similar sinkers at his velocity. His changeup is also a stellar pitch for inducing grounders, with 5.3 inches of vertical drop compared to similar changeups, good for 13th in MLB. That same changeup, along with his curveball (his most thrown pitch) have whiff rates above 30%. Overall, while Wright's strikeout numbers aren't overwhelming, his stuff induces ground balls quite consistently, and his curveball and changeup have just enough put-away ability to keep hitters guessing. He's not the best at limiting contact in general, and may give up more hits than average, but he keeps the ball on the ground and misses barrels very effecively.

Starling Marte: Dislike

Starling Marte, despite being 34 years old now, has continued to string together quality seasons. Unfortunately for Marte, his plate discipline suggests father time will catch up to him rather quickly. For one, a lot of his value relies on defense and speed, both of which have been dipping on a season to season basis:

This table displays his home to first time and his outs above average in percentile format in the statcast era. Each listed percentile represents a year, with the top year being 2015, and the bottom being 2022. Clearly both are experiencing a dip already.

Additionally, his offensive production relies heavily on making contact. He walks at a 5.3% clip on his career, and has never had a chase rate below 30%. Essentially, he doesn't take pitches often, and relies on making contact to get on base, which is proven to decrease as players get older. There's a reason the Nelson Cruz's of the world are much more productive than the average player in their late 30s: they find ways to get on base even as their contact rates decrease.

Adding further insult to injury is Marte's peripherals, with a .355 wOBA last year and only a .336 xwOBA to go with it. Granted, Marte's contact rate has yet to actually begin its expected decline, but I'm confident that the dip starts this year--quite frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't started already. But even if the contact rates remain constant in 2023, Marte's speed and OAA has already begun to drop, and his peripherals expect a further dip in performance.

NL Central

Nick Lodolo: Like

After being drafted 7th overall in 2019, Nick Lodolo profiled as a high floor type prospect defined by his command and ability to induce weak contact. This was evident throughout his minor league career, where in AA in 2021 (his highest minor league sample size, 44 IP), he had a 39% strikeout rate, a 5% walk rate, and a 54% ground ball rate. His low walks and high ground balls haven't exactly translated to MLB just yet (8.8% walk rate, 46% ground ball rate in 2022). However, due to his prospect profile and his minor league success, I believe it will come to fruition at the major league level. Even without it last year though, Lodolo still managed a 30% strikeout rate in 19 starts with the Reds, and was 81st percentile in whiff rate.

On top of all this, Lodolo has a very intriguing pitch arsenal. Due to his 3-quarter arm slot, Lodolo gets some unique movement on his pitches, and ranks highly in horizontal break for all four pitches in his mix (4-seam, sinker, curveball, changeup). Highest is his 4-seamer, which has 102% more horizontal break than the average similar 4-seam. He threw his 4-seam around 30% of the time--his most thrown pitch last year. His second most thrown pitch, his curveball (28.9% usage), is just as unique if not more so. Again, due to his lower arm slot, his curveball has more of a horizontal movement profile than average curveballs of similar velocity--40% more horizontal break to be exact. Additionally, it has 19% less vertical movement than similar curveballs.

Here's a look at that curveball, which looks and profiles a lot like a unique slurve-type pitch. As you can see, it's a really tough pitch to hit, and given its whopping 46% whiff rate, it works excellently as a 2 strike pitch, as used in this video. Overall, Lodolo has a hard-to-find trifecta of stuff, command, and youth, which to me signifies a breakout year is well on its way. His stuff is already playing quite nicely at the MLB level, and once his command follows suit, he has ace potential.

William Contreras: Dislike

After bursting onto the professional scene with Atlanta last season, William Contreras was traded to the Brewers as a part of the three team Sean Murphy deal. First, let's start with the good. In 97 games on the Braves, Contreras hit 20 home runs and had a 137 wRC+. This is largely due to his batted ball profile, where he ranks 84th percentile in hard hit rate, 91st percentile in barrel rate, and 97th percentile in max exit velocity. Additionally, he walked at a 10.4% clip.

That's all well and good, and signals a promising start to Contreras's MLB career. However, I don't think this production is remotely sustainable. While Contreras had a .370 wOBA last season, it came along with a .347 xwOBA and a .344 BABIP, meaning over-performance was highly likely. Additionally, when Contreras's wOBA and BABIP regress to the mean, he won't be able to rely on making contact to keep his performance afloat. He strikes out 27.7% of the time and whiffs 34.3% of the time, including a 43% whiff rate on breaking balls. That last point is especially important. When young hitters can't hit breaking balls, sooner or later, pitchers adjust, and those hitters suffer.

Shown here is the percentage of pitches thrown to Contreras that were breaking balls, organized by month of last season. Clearly following the first two months pitchers adjusted to Contreras's weakness of the breaking ball, and threw them much more often when facing him.

Now here we see that after peaking at the beginning of the season in rolling xwOBA, it began to fall much closer to the league average as the season went on. This change is correlated to the change in breaking balls thrown to Contreras. Simply put, as pitchers began to adjust, Contreras became less productive as a hitter.

Lastly, an issue for Contreras as a catcher is his defensive ability. While he looks to be the starting catcher in Milwaukee this year, he ranks just 20th percentile in framing, and is exactly 50th percentile in pop time. According to Fangraphs, his defensive value sits at a -3.4. Not what you want out of your starting backstop. All in all, while Contreras was no doubt productive last season, that production was clearly unsustainable, and when looked at on top of his lack of defensive ability, I expect Contreras to be much less of a factor for Milwaukee than many might think.

NL West

Blake Sabol: Like

Behold, the latest guy you've never heard of that will play a massive role for the Giants. Blake Sabol, a guy who was picked in round 7 of the 2019 Draft by the Pirates, made it to AAA last season, only to be let go in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. There, he was selected by the Reds and almost immediately flipped to the Giants for cash and a player to be named later. I'm honestly shocked two separate teams had little interest in retaining their rights to Sabol, because this guy simply rakes. In 2022 Sabol spent 98 games in AA for the Pirates, with a .281/.347/.486 slash line, and a 124 wRC+. The Pirates then promoted him to AAA, where in 25 games he hit .296/.426/.543 for a 157 wRC+. He walks a lot, gets on base and doesn't strike out a ton. On top of all that, he's improved his ISO from .106 in low A to .247 in AAA. Have I mentioned he rakes?

There were 3 players in this year's spring training with an OPS above 1.100. Corey Seager, Corbin Carroll, and you guessed it, Blake Sabol. Sabol slashed .348/.475/.630 in this year's Cactus League, rightfully earning him a spot on the Giants' opening day roster. If it were most other teams, I would be hesitant to write about a guy who hasn't played in a regular season MLB game, and was selected in the most recent Rule 5 Draft, but how many guys have we seen the Giants convert from nobodies to somebodies since the Zaidi-Kapler regime? Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf, Lamonte Wade Jr, Donovan Solono, Alex Dickerson, Mike Yastrzemski, and the list goes on. Sabol very well could be the newest member.

Tony Gonsolin: Dislike

When I compliment a Giant and rip on a Dodger, all is right in the world. Tony Gonsolin, a breakout player, excelled on the surface in 2022. He went 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts, and sported a 24% strikeout rate with a 7% walk rate. Now here's where Dodger fans should proceed with caution. First off, a .207 BABIP is outrageously low. One that will almost certainly regress to the mean in 2023. At first I was confused as to how a pitcher with 130.1 innings pitched could have that low of a BABIP to begin with. The answer is in the shift.

Among pitchers with over 100 PAs faced last season, Gonsolin ranks 4th in percentage of shifts with 65.2%. Interestingly enough, two of the other three pitchers ahead of Gonsolin in this ranking are Clayton Kershaw and Ryan Pepiot, both teammates of Gonsolin. The Dodgers utilized the shift heavily last season, and that definitely played a key role in keeping Gonsolin's BABIP so low. Now that the shift is banned, Gonsolin will suffer and regress. Additionally, while his ERA was a stellar 2.14, as I previously mentioned, his ERA estimators also suggest regression is in play. His FIP is 3.28, xFIP is 3.69, and SIERA is 3.74. Lastly, his 61st percentile whiff rate and 55th percentile chase rate don't exactly blow hitters away, meaning without such incredibly good luck on batted balls, Gonsolin won't be able to rely on strikeouts to keep his production afloat.

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It's been a thrilling offseason to say the least, whether it be the Carlos Correa saga, the Padres signing their 9th shortstop, or the Yankees locking up the face of their franchise. We also got to witness the two best players of today's game go toe to toe representing their countries. But all of that is behind us now, as are the 12 player previews I've written. It's time we sit back, relax, and get ready to watch some baseball. The sizzling hot dogs, the cracking open of cans, the pop of the baseball hitting a wooden bat, all for seven straight months. Cherish it all... 162 goes way faster than one might think.