My Complicated Relationship with the Cincinnati Reds

On April 25, 2021, in an article written about the Milwaukee Brewers and their lack of attention from the rest of the baseball world, I made a brief mention of Cincinnati's club: "And before you ask, don't get me started on the Reds. I'm still not buying them." As we headed into the month of July, I felt pretty good about my analysis. The Reds had cooled off and were a .500 ball club, while the Brewers were comfortably leading the division. As I began to sit and pat myself on the back for a prediction gone right (sort of), something unexpected happened. The Reds began to surge. For quite some time they have been within striking distance of the Padres for the second wild card spot, and I even predicted them to surpass San Diego and make the playoffs in my last post. So what happened? Why are the Reds suddenly back? And why has my opinion on them done a complete 180?

I initially saw the Reds as a team that would surprise everyone in the beginning, and then slowly fade into expectations as the season went on--the same path that the Kansas City Royals have been on. It happens all the time, simply due to small sample size. A team can play great baseball for the first 15 games of the season, turn some heads, and then do nothing spectacular for the other 147. That makes logical sense. What doesn't, is playing great for 15 games, then fizzling out for a couple months, then surging right back. How is one supposed to tell if this team is good or not?

First, let's take a look at their offense. In the first 15 games of the season, the Reds were 2nd in the league in OPS, wRC+, and wOBA. All very important offensive statistics. From April 19th to the end of June, they dipped significantly in all three statistics. I would align this to a sharp decline in BABIP, from .314 in their first 15 games, to .292 in the next 2 or so months. It's now been back at .323 from the beginning of July onward, and the aforementioned stats have climbed back as well. To make things easier, I'll be calling those first 15 games "phase 1", April 19th to the end of June "phase 2", and the final stretch from July to today "phase 3". I like to think the Reds changed their hitting approach to become more balanced throughout the phases. Phase 1 they lead the league in ISO, were 8th in pitches swung at, but 21st in walk rate. Phase 2 they were 16th in ISO, 22nd in pitches swung at, and 11th in walks, and phase 3 has them 8th in ISO, 27th in pitches swung at, and 6th in walk rate. Yes, the BABIP change I alluded to earlier displays luck being a part of the equation. But it isn't the only thing to be considered here. Cincy went from a team who swung at everything and relied on raw power, to a team who still has good power, but is now able to take pitches, and leads the league in on base percentage since July 1st. They could decline a bit from phase 3 levels--should BABIP decline again--but their newly-found plate discipline gives them a higher floor, preventing phase 2 levels of offense.

The pitching has also improved throughout the three phases for Cincinnati. In FIP, phase 1 they were 25th, phase 2 they were 21st, and phase 3 they were 18th in MLB rankings. This can be attributed to the rate at which opponents barreled up baseballs. Phase 1 saw the Reds give up the 3rd highest barrel rate in baseball, which went to 21st in MLB for phase 2, and even further down to 25th in MLB for phase 3. Furthermore, throughout the three phases' progression, the Reds have given up more ground balls, less home runs, and have walked less. The luck isn't even a factor in this instance. For one, that's due to the ground balls increasing; this can also be seen with their phase 3 xFIP being 4.30 versus a 4.51 FIP, along with a BABIP of .303, effectively at the normal league average of .300. With relief pitchers the whole change is even more apparent: from phase 1 to phase 3, strikeouts per 9 have gone up from 9.66 to 10.50, and xFIP has gone down from 4.47 to 4.11 for the Reds' bullpen.

Honestly the list just keeps going. One must dive deeply to see it with offense, but it's there, and with pitching one can see improvement in nearly every category. Fielding, while I won't discuss in depth due to a -26 team defensive runs saved this season, has been poor all year. If you make two of three things better, and keep the other constant, the product as a whole will improve. This team, from top to bottom, looks better. While the Padres might even suffer due to a surplus of talent (not enough at bats to go around prevents anyone from truly getting on a roll), this Reds team is a great batch of players. They have veterans, guys in their prime, and young players, all mixed together on a team vying for a playoff spot. And they, possibly unlike the Padres, don't see October baseball as a given. So it's safe to say the Reds have grown on me, after eliminating them from the equation during their hot start to the year. As it stands today, the morning of August 11th, Cincinnati is 4 games out of a wild card spot, and has an easier remaining schedule than San Diego. The Reds are a playoff team.