Luis Urias: The Lost Piece

Only a couple years ago, Luis Urias was grouped in an elite group of young prospects in the San Diego Padres organization including Chris Paddack, Jake Cronenworth, and Fernando Tatis Jr. As an upstart middle infielder, he was expected to come up alongside Tatis to form an elite double play combo that could anchor the Padres for years to come. In 2019, Urias has over 300 plate appearances in Triple-A, throughout which he earned a slash line of .315/.398/.600, along with a stellar .410 wOBA and 137 wRC+. This lead him to be the third ranked prospect in the Padres organization at the time, as well as the 24th ranked prospect in all of MLB. He was then called up to San Diego in 2019, and was one plate appearance shy of 250 at the major league level. While his numbers went significantly down, including a .294 wOBA and 81 wRC+, it was his first time in the majors (besides a brief 12 game tenure in the MLB in 2018), and he only got half a season there. It would be foolish to say his upside had left him even in the slightest. However, nearly one month after the conclusion of the 2019 Playoffs, the plans of reaching that upside in San Diego were derailed.

On November 29, 2019, Luis Urias and left-handed pitcher Eric Lauer were traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham, right-hander Zach Davies. So far, the trade has worked out great for the Padres. Davies pitched better than Lauer did in San Diego, and ended up being included in a package the Padres sent over to the Chicago Cubs to acquire star pitcher Yu Darvish. Trent Grisham has been excellent in his short tenure with the Padres. Eric Lauer, meanwhile is down in Triple-A for the Brewers. While Urias is still at the MLB level, he, to put it lightly, hasn't been great with the Brewers.

At the time of writing this article, Urias has 43 plate appearances in the 2021 season. Incredibly, 12 of those have resulted in walks, garnering roughly a 28% walk rate. With only 2 weeks of the season having gone by, this is clearly an anomaly, although an interesting one at that. Looking at his other plate discipline stats throughout his short MLB career, he has swung at 41.6% of pitches he's seen, and made contact with 77.3% of the pitches he's swung at. Both are around 3-5 percentage points below the league average, which is neither good nor bad. As long as its not too crazy of a deviation, which it isn't for Urias, plate discipline shouldn't be a problem. Additionally, throughout his career he has a wOBA of .287, and a wRC+ of 77, both of which are not very good numbers. He's slightly improved to a wOBA of .304 this season, as well as a wRC+ value of 88. The wOBA this year could be higher than his career average due to his walk rate, but he also has a xwOBA of .320, so it's something to keep an eye out for.

In terms of fielding, his DRS numbers have hovered around the league average during his innings at shortstop, with values of -3 in 2019, along with 1 in 2020 and 1 so far in 2021. The -3 is also notable in that his defensive mishaps certainly could've contributed to poor hitting due to a lack of confidence. He's also only spent 128 total innings at shortstop in Milwaukee, so beware of small sample size. In 176 innings at third base for the Brewers last season, Urias had a UZR per 150 games rating of 17.6, proving that his fielding abilities are still with him.

However the reason I'm writing this is not because I sifted through data and found a number that proves he's bound to reach his potential. I'm writing this because the Brewers clearly believe something outside of the data I've discussed. A week or so ago, the Brewers traded shortstop Orlando Arcia to the Atlanta Braves. While they acquired a couple right handed pitchers in the deal, the trade was clearly made to pave the way for Urias to become their everyday shortstop. The best way to see if a young player can perform is to give them the opportunity to do so. The Padres were an up and coming team, one that had one of the best prospects in the league (Tatis) at Urias's natural position. Urias had a lot shorter of a window to perform in San Diego than what he now sees in Milwaukee. The Padres also figured they didn't need Urias for their future, and by the looks of their current team, they really don't. With an infield of Hosmer, Cronenworth, Tatis, and Machado, as well as no universal DH yet, there was really no room for Urias to develop.

The conclusion here is that there really isn't one for Luis Urias. He still holds the potential he once had. While the numbers and results in his MLB tenure haven't yet displayed this, he's only 23 years old. Results usually don't mean a potential is lost, simply that the potential has yet to be reached. Give him time, and I'd say it's likely that his breakout year comes. He was a lost piece with the Padres in the sense that they had nowhere to put him. He didn't fit into their future plans of building a playoff team. However, the Brewers clearly see him in their future, so only time will tell if they have found a key piece in Urias.