Byron Buxton's Breakout Year?

If you're a Minnesota Twins fan, odds are you're pretty excited about outfielder Byron Buxton. Back in 2012, Buxton was selected 2nd overall by the Twins in the MLB Amateur Draft. And by 2015, he had climbed the minor league ladder and made it to the big leagues. While he's always been a superb defender, his offense had never really clicked. Until this year. The Twins have been near or at the top of the league in offense over the past few seasons, even without the development of Buxton's offense. With players like Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, and of course the ageless Nelson Cruz, they hadn't really needed Buxton to succeed. They used him as a speedy centerfielder who could make every play out there, while hitting near the bottom of the order. Minnesota has won the AL Central in back to back seasons, but struggled to do anything in the playoffs. Could Buxton's offensive revolution help them take the next step to become championship contenders? Is his offensive production even sustainable? As always, we'll dive into his advanced statistics and figure these things out.

First off, let's begin with what Buxton has always been good at: defense. In 2017, he won a gold glove award, and deservedly so. He had an incredible 22 defensive runs saved (DRS) that season, and a 10.0 UZR rating. While that was his best defensive season, he's never had a bad one: never having a DRS or UZR under 2, signifying at the very least, an above average fielder. In the shortened season last year, his DRS and UZR would've been skewed due to lack of games, but his UZR/150 (UZR rating per 150 games) was an impressive 10.6, a slight dip from his even more impressive 2018 and 2019 seasons, where that stat was 15.0 and 15.7, respectively. Additionally, throughout his career (minus the 2020 season), Buxton has made 99.6% of routine plays (90-100% chance of being fielded), 91.5% of likely plays (60-90% chance of being fielded), and 20% of plays with a 1-10% chance of being fielded. Clearly, the Twins have been very lucky with the guy they have manning center field. Now the other aspect of his game is finally starting to click.

This season, albeit with only 36 plate appearances at the time of me writing this, he has been spectacular. In terms of power hitting, he has increased his isolated power rating (ISO) slightly over the prior 2 seasons, reaching a then career high of .251 in 2019, and then increasing that to .323 in 2020. This year, that number has skyrocketed to .625, signifying many more extra base hits, hard hit balls, and home runs. And in 9 games played, he already has 5 homers and 17 hard hit balls, true to his ISO increase. Additionally, his plate discipline has improved, but still could be better. Buxton hovered around 25-30% in strikeout rate prior to this season, but has lowered that to 16.7%. However, this season, he has swung at 37% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is 7 percentage points below the league average. While he does manage to hit an above average 61% of pitches he swings at outside the zone, that number won't be sustainable. Assuming opposing pitchers will look at Buxton's scouting report, they would know to try to fool Buxton with pitches outside the zone.

More data suggests regression, considering an unbelievable weighted on base (wOBA) of .663 compared to an expected wOBA of .558. Both are incredible numbers, but the fact that one is over .100 points less than the other is significant. In my mind, Buxton will have his breakout year this year. Of course, I don't expect him to remain at this torrid pace, but I can see a great offensive season coming for Buxton. He was a top 2 pick in the draft for a reason. For years, Twins fans have been waiting on his untapped potential at the plate, and it seems he is finally reaching that during his age 27 season.

In terms of the team as a whole, Buxton adds yet another element to one of the league's most powerful offenses. The lineup certainly has the capability to take the Twins to the next level. It's key to remember their depth as well. Outside of the aforementioned Cruz, Donaldson, and Kepler, this lineup contains guys like Luis Arraez, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver, who are all capable of getting the job done. Adding a breakout year for Byron Buxton to the mix would certainly make this lineup a tough out come October. However, like all teams vying for a championship, it all comes down to pitching. While Minnesota has a solid rotation, led by Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios, I'm not completely confident in them getting the job done. Just 2 reliable pitchers won't get it done in the playoffs. Maybe J.A. Happ uses his experience to fare well, or Michael Pineda gets hot, or even journeyman Randy Dobnak escapes the bullpen and can start for the Twins. But if none of these happen, the Twins will get a result much similar to their past years.

Overall, I think Buxton is a great player who's finally reaching his potential. While some form regression is inevitable, he should still put up great numbers this year. He's improved in too many areas to falter completely. It adds to an unbelievable lineup for the Twins, but you can't simply outscore opponents in the postseason. You need good starting pitching that gets hot at the right time. I see two outcomes for the Twins: either the same exact outcome of the previous two seasons, or a run at the championship. The offense will be there, and they'll show out. What it all comes down to is whether their rotation will be enough.