Baseball's Most Underrated Team

I'll admit it, I was on the St. Louis Cardinals bandwagon prior to the season. Take a great pitching team whose problem was hitting, and give them Nolan Arenado, and on paper it makes sense for them to be the favorite in the NL Central. That being said, it could get more complicated than we expected. With how the Milwaukee Brewers have looked, they simply aren't talked about enough. Ever since I saw them sweep the Padres a few days ago, I've decided that I'm here to give them the attention they deserve.. The Brewers are MLB's most underrated team, and today we're going to look at if and how the Brewers can win that two team race for the NL Central crown. And before you ask, don't get me started on the Reds. I'm still not buying them.

Let's switch things up and start with Milwaukee's bullpen. In a combined 17.1 innings this year for Josh Hader and J.P. Feyereisen, there have been zero, that's right, ZERO runs allowed. And that's not attributed to luck, with a 1.34 xERA for Hader 2.80 xERA for Feyereisen, as well as a strikeout rate above 50% for Hader. Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger aren't too shabby either, with xFIPs under 3.5 and single digit walk rates for the both of them, at 5% and 8%, respectively. Lastly, Devin Williams might have a 9.09 FIP, but his xFIP is at 4.82. He was also the National League Rookie of the Year last season, containing a 0.86 FIP, so I have a feeling he'll be just fine.

Moving on to the starting rotation, it's easy to say the Brewers have a lack of depth here. Before I get into that, here's a reminder that Corbin Burnes has started in 4 games this year, struck out a total of 40 batters, and has yet to give up a single walk. Brandon Woodruff is great as well, giving the Brewers an underrated yet incredibly capable 1-2 punch. They also have Freddy Peralta as a number 3 guy, who's another under-appreciated pitcher. He is in the top 10 percent of the MLB this year in whiff rate, xBA, xSLG, hard hit balls, and strikeout rate. His whiff rate is 98th percentile. He was good last year as well, and is only 24, so watch out for this rotation. Going back to the claim of lack of depth, maybe that's been true in past seasons. But with the recent development of these three guys, I don't see that being a problem. Back in 2018, sure, the Brewers had little to no starting pitching depth, relying on Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson. But manager Craig Counsell managed the bullpen so well that they were 1 win away from the World Series. Having three reliable starters, as well as a manger who knows what to do with the relievers, is a great recipe for success should the Brewers get back to October.

Behind these pitchers might be the best fielding defense in the league this year. They lead the league in team defensive runs saved, and are second in MLB in team UZR. Catcher Omar Navarez is in the top 6 percent of the league in frame rate, and has 4 defensive runs saved. More on him later. Luis Urias (whom I've already discussed in a different article), Travis Shaw, and Kolton Wong when healthy are part of a stellar defending infield. The outfield also contains some great fielders in Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Avisail Garcia. Bradley, Shaw, Garcia, Cain, and Wong all have an UZR per 150 innings above 10, and Urias is right behind them at 9.5. Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura, while being in the lineup mostly due to hitting, can certainly hold their own out there.

Hitting might be the Brewers' greatest weakness right now, even so it isn't bad in the slightest. Navarez is off to a torrid start at the plate, with a .438 wOBA and 177 wRC+, and overall has been a complete revelation for the Brewers this year. Garcia will fall into that category soon: he has a wOBA of .294 but an xwOBA of .414 and has an average exit velocity of 94 mph, good for the league's 93rd percentile. Yelich is hurt currently, but him coming back should provide the team with a massive boost, and the fact that they've been able to perform without him--both right now and in their September run back in 2019--shows a lot about this team. The offense as a whole will see improvement too, not only because of Yelich's return, but also because they're ranked 3rd in hard hit balls, and 10th in barreled balls.

In the end, I'm still not ready to move on from the Cardinals, because of how long the season is. I don't want to jump on the Brewers' recent success too quickly. That being said, the Cardinals' path to winning the division has become much more competitive after looking at the Brewers. The more I look at stats, the more great things I find to say about the Brewers, and a single article is not enough to cover that in its entirety. No matter how they finish, the Brewers need to be talked about more. They're one of the rare teams that's fun to watch, and analytically favored. Keep an eye out for them, especially if you're a Cardinals fan.