Analysis of MLB's 2020 Hall of Fame Class

In 2020, Both Derek Jeter and Larry Walker were inducted into the MLB Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). Jeter received 99.7% of the vote in his first year of eligibility--one voter away from being a unanimous selection--while Walker snuck in with 76.6% of the vote in his 10th and final year of hall of fame eligibility. While this voting period happened a year ago, the induction ceremony was recently conducted, making it an appropriate time to discuss Jeter and Walker. Additionally, there were no hall of fame inductees in the 2021 voting period, thus giving even more reason to write this article. So I'll be here to analyze whether I agree with the voters or not, via a deep dive of each of their careers. Judging by the Instagram post that directed you here, you might be surprised with my conclusion.

Larry Walker

I know you're probably itching to get to Jeter's section, but let's not forget about the underappreciated career of Larry Walker. I wasn't alive for nearly the entirety of Walker's career, which means my prejudgements on him were derived from how the prior generations of the baseball world viewed him. He played in a period before sabermetrics were mainstream, and where playing well under the bright lights was the best method of being viewed as a top player in the league. Clearly this thinking is misleading. How misleading it actually is, is shocking. A career slash line of .313/.400/.565 is really, really good. A career wOBA of .412 is other-worldly. Other career stats from Larry Walker include 140 wRC+, a 68.7 fangraphs WAR, 11.4% walk rate, 15.3% strikeout rate, 21.5 BsR, and a .252 ISO rating. He was an incredible hitter. It's that simple. While many defensive stats weren't utilized until the back end of his career (if that), the total zone runs rating was available, which was 100 on the career, a terrific output.

Now let's talk about Walker's recognition. In 17 seasons, Walker won 1 MVP, 7 gold gloves, 3 silver sluggers, and was on 5 all star teams. The biggest thing that stands out to me is 1999: a season where Walker had a slash line of .379/.458/.710, hit 37 homers, and held an OPS+ of 164 (while peripherals are great, I still believe awards should be based on actual production, like slash line, OPS+, and home runs). Here was the MVP voting of that season:

Now this is just ridiculous. I know, I know, he only played 127 games that season. But he had a better slash line and OPS than any other player here. Even if he doesn't win the award, he shouldn't be nearly as far down as 10th.

So why wasn't Larry Walker recognized as the unbelievable hitter he was? He played in Montreal and Colorado for most of his career, which were bad teams, and thus created little opportunities under the bright lights. Plus, playing in Colorado always comes with the caveat of high altitude seemingly inflating hitting stats (although stats such as wRC+, WAR, and OPS+ adjust for that). All of this means less national recognition, which is in stark contrast to the other player I'm about to discuss.

Derek Jeter

Overrated. That's all I can say. Wildly and unfairly overrated. Let's look at the numbers. Derek Jeter's career slash line is .310/.377/.440, paired with a wOBA of .360, wRC+ of 119, BB% of 8.6, K% of 14.6, and a 73.0 WAR. While it wasn't calculated until the 9th season of his 20 year big league career, he still managed to rack up -165 defensive runs saved. Statistically the worst fielder ever in the DRS-calculation era. All those jump throws that passed the eye test apparently meant nothing... huh.

Yet despite these disappointing statistics, Jeter had a lot of recognition. He was a rookie of the year, 5 time Gold Glover, 5 time Silver Slugger, 5 time World Series champion, and was voted into the All-Star Game 14 times. A lot of this recognition can be attributed not only to playing in the largest market, but also success and opportunity under the bright lights. In a whopping 158 games and 734 plate appearances in the playoffs, Jeter put up a similar statline to his career one, with a .308/.374./465 slash, and 20 home runs, along with an 18% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Again, good but not great numbers that were significantly inflated by playing in New York, and having big moments. The flip to home plate against the Athletics and the home run that dubbed him Mr. November, as well as many others, have etched their permanent places in MLB's extensive history. We always say that Jeter "knew how to win," but at the end of the day, a lot of postseason baseball is based on team performance as a whole rather than individual players. Even Madison Bumgarner's 2014 run where he seemingly put the Giants on his back couldn't have been done without San Francisco's timely hitting. Luck must also be mentioned, as in a small sample size means anything can happen. Anyone can catch fire. And being on a team as talented as the Yankees of the late 90s and early 2000s only amplifies this. Could Jeter be a really good team player? A guy who acts as a leader, who brings team chemistry with ease? Absolutely. But that's a compliment to Jeter's personality, not his true ability to hit and field a baseball.

Clearly we can deduce that Larry Walker was a better player than Derek Jeter. This is statistically and objectively true. Larry Walker had no control over the team he played on, only the numbers he put up (significantly better than Jeters'). And again, stats like WAR, OPS+ and wRC+, eliminate the "Coors Field effect". But to take this one step further, here's another comparison:

Harold Baines, many would argue, was undeserving of a spot in Cooperstown. David Justice wasn't even voted in. And yet both have better career statlines than Derek Jeter. Players should only be voted into the hall of fame based on individual performance: the thing they have by far the most control over. Not team performance. So the question must be asked... is David Justice in the hall of fame discussion? Or better yet, is Derek Jeter not?

Before we make such a conclusion, I'd like to bring one last piece of data to light. Jeter had a rough few years to conclude his big league career, and took a few years to get going at the beginning of it. Thus, maybe this underwhelming statline is being dragged down by years before or after his prime. So let's take a look at Jeter's peak years, which I'm defining as 1997-2006, as it contains 9 of his 10 best seasons in terms of WAR. In those and only those seasons, Jeter hit .317/.391/.467, with a .376 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and average single-season WAR of 5.0 (a total WAR of 50.0). In that span, he was 7th in baseball in WAR, ranked below Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Alex Rodriguez, and tied with Brian Giles--all players who didn't make it to the hall of fame (although Alex Rodriguez would be in without PED usage). Yet Jeter was ranked above the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Jeff Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez, and Albert Pujols in WAR during this span--all hall of famers (or future hall of famers in the case of Pujols). However, all of this must be taken with a grain of salt. We're looking at players through the lens of Jeter's prime. Some players on this list didn't even play in every season from 1997-2006. Some did, but their primes were before or after those years. All we can deduce from this is that in the years Jeter was at his best, his absolute ceiling if you will, was 7th in MLB.

Here's my conclusion: Derek Jeter is a worthy member of the Hall of Fame. It's just not as evident of a conclusion as one might think, as the general view of Jeter is so clearly overrated. Judging players based on their entire career is probably unreliable, so players should be inducted based on their peaks. At the same time, the peaks have to be sustained for long enough to be a hall of famer (hence why Tim Lincecum is far from the discussion). And above all else, every player should have to go through rigorous statistical analysis from the voters before their hall of fame status is determined. Regardless of whether you're Babe Ruth, or Jeff Mathis. It must be an unbiased analysis as well. No baseball fan who lived through Jeter's career could've come to the conclusion I came to in the same way. He was too overrated. In fact, this data search exposed me to Brian Giles, who I've never heard of in my life, but could be a hall of fame candidate. Why didn't he get the same recognition as Jeter? Championships, playoff performance, the team you play on, and the amount of people who know your name should not be heavily considered when evaluating a hall of fame candidate. Individual performance should be by far the greatest factor. So maybe a revamping of the hall of fame process is needed. Should we give more than 5 years to process a player's career before they enter the voting period? Or maybe even a band of voters comprised of fans born only after a player's retirement should be required. All of this is simply food for thought. But the lengthy and almost open-ended conclusion I've come to should be treated as the start of a very new, and groundbreaking discussion. Congratulations to Larry Walker and Derek Jeter. Now who's next?