American League Surprise Teams

In the young 2021 season, the American League has looked really interesting so far. Going into Sunday's slate of games, the Red Sox and Royals have sole possession of first place in their respective divisions, while the Mariners are tied for first place in the AL West. All of these teams were not very good last season, and most if not all of them had very little expectations of changing that this year. Even with the expanded playoff in 2020, none of these teams made it to October. Yes, it is a long season, but I'll still be looking into each of these teams to figure out if their success will be sustained. Maybe it's yet another early season anomaly, or maybe one or two of these teams could look to be contenders this year. Let's find out, shall we? I'll start in Boston.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are 10-5 in their first 15 games of the season, including a 9 game win streak that ended a few days ago. For Boston, their game has been offense, offense, and more offense. J.D. Martinez (above), Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, and Xander Bogaerts have had great starts to the year, with Martinez and Bogaerts having wOBA's surpassing .400, and all four of those players having 132 or more wRC+. Youngsters Christian Arroyo and Alex Verdugo are also looking to provide some return on investment for the Sox, and some key depth pieces in Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and Marwin Gonzalez are all solid players, though they haven't produced much yet. Overall, their lineup is extremely well rounded, and their pitching has been holding down the fort. Nathan Eovaldi has been impressive, and it's nice to see Eduardo Rodriguez back, but xFIPs of 5.50 for Nick Pivetta and 6.72 for Martin Perez suggest regression for the two of them. In terms of bullpen, Matt Barnes has looked great, and Adam Ottavino, while underwhelming so far, should definitely bounce back as the good player he is. With Alex Cora back at the helm, their lineup certainly isn't one to take lightly. However, their pitching makes me expect them to regress to the mean, and placing 4th or 5th in a tough AL East division. And unpopular opinion: those new yellow and light blue jerseys look awesome.

Kansas City Royals

Prior to Sunday's games, the Royals are quietly 8-5 and leading the AL Central, along with being the only team beside the LA Dodgers to not lose a series yet. They are a year or so away from being true competitors, I'll say that. However, this is one of the most slept on teams in baseball. Starting with their lineup, they simply aren't talked about enough. Jorge Soler broke out in 2019, and is a young star that deserves more recognition. He hit 48 homers that year, paired with a .391 xwOBA. He has good plate discipline, showed flashes in his tenure with Chicago, and has been great in Kansas City. Moving through the order, the Royals also have Whit Merrifield (above), Salvador Perez and Andrew Benintendi. And don't get me started on Carlos Santana. He's not a great hitter, but boy does he get on base. Plus, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, a young decent hitter with stellar fielding ability has been hurt thus far with an oblique injury, so this team should only get better when he comes back. They could use some more starting pitching, but Jakob Junis and Danny Duffy are both solid, and Brady Singer's advanced analytics suggest a rebound after a 0-2 start. They seem to be going with a bullpen by committee, with Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Greg Holland, and Wade Davis each having a save apiece. Outside of Holland, the other three guys have FIPs at 3.85 or under, topped with an impressive 1.71 FIP for Scott Barlow. I also really like Mike Matheny as a manager there. In the end, this is a team with a severely underrated lineup paired with solid pitching. I imagine they take third place in the AL Central this season and truly compete in 2022 or 2023, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they catch the White Sox or Twins napping and end up with 2nd place in the division.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners were actually my pick to win the division this season. And right now, they're 9-6, tied with the Angels for first in the AL West, without their best player in reigning rookie of the year Kyle Lewis. Outside of Lewis, their lineup has Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, and Ty France. They also have young players who are great fielders, and could develop their hitting as they get older, such as J.P. Crawford and Taylor Trammell. Jose Marmolejos has been fun to watch as well this year. But this team's real strength is starting pitching. Marco Gonzales (above) has had a slow start, but judging by last year's performance, with a 3.32 FIP and 3.90 SIERA, along with this year's xFIP being 3 runs lower than his actual FIP, he should be fine. Justus Sheffield was a great get from the Yankees a few years back, and should pan out well. Additionally, international stars Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen have impressed me thus far, with a 2.97 FIP for Flexen. Bullpen-wise, Kendall Graveman has yet to allow a run in 5 appearances, and Rafael Montero has settled in nicely. Overall, this is a young team with amazing potential for the future. Remember, Lewis, Sheffield, Flexen, France, Trammell, and Crawford are all 26 and younger. They could be in the same vein as the Royals in that they're a year or so away, but the team right now is better than Kansas City's. Again, they were my preseason division winner, and in a weaker AL West, I don't see any reason to change that. The Astros are fading fast (I heard a garbage can was out with COVID), and the Angels have a great lineup but I doubt their pitching staff can get it done with Shohei Ohtani and Dylan Bundy leading the way. The true team the Mariners should worry about is Oakland, but they've lost some pieces since their 3 playoff appearances in a row, such as Marcus Semien. The Mariners are good enough now, and they'll only get better in the future.

As mentioned before, it's a long season. These teams very well could end up in last place by the season's end, simply due to baseball's randomness and early season anomalies. However, with such a small sample size, it's always interesting to analyze the unexpected and use it for prediction's sake. There are a lot of positives with each of these teams, and the Royals and Mariners have a lot to look forward to beyond the 2021 season. And all three of these teams have played their fair share of tough competition, so it won't be too easy for other teams to take over within the divisions.